КФУ. Карточка публикации. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application.

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PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER YIELD IN THE META RIVER BASIN, COLOMBIA: AN INVEST MODEL APPLICATION.

Форма представления

Статьи в зарубежных журналах и сборниках

Год публикации

2024

Язык

английский

Авторы, сотрудники КФУ

Гурьянов Владимир Владимирович, автор

Гусаров Артем Викторович, автор

Другие авторы

Valencia Jhon B. , автор

Библиографическое описание на языке оригинала

Valencia, J.B.; Guryanov, V.V.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Diaz, N.; Escobar-Carbonari, D.; Gusarov, A.V. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application. Hydrology 2024, 11, 25. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025

Аннотация

This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin's annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin's water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.

Ключевые слова

water balance; hydrological model; climate change; CMIP6 scenarios; Orinoco River

Название журнала

Hydrology

URL

https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/11/2/25

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https://repository.kpfu.ru/?p_id=295654

Полная запись метаданных

Поле DC	Значение	Язык
dc.contributor.author	Гурьянов Владимир Владимирович	ru_RU
dc.contributor.author	Гусаров Артем Викторович	ru_RU
dc.contributor.author	Valencia Jhon B.	ru_RU
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-01T00:00:00Z	ru_RU
dc.date.available	2024-01-01T00:00:00Z	ru_RU
dc.date.issued	2024	ru_RU
dc.identifier.citation	Valencia, J.B.; Guryanov, V.V.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Diaz, N.; Escobar-Carbonari, D.; Gusarov, A.V. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application. Hydrology 2024, 11, 25. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025	ru_RU
dc.identifier.uri	https://repository.kpfu.ru/?p_id=295654	ru_RU
dc.description.abstract	Hydrology	ru_RU
dc.description.abstract	This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin's annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin's water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.	ru_RU
dc.language.iso	ru	ru_RU
dc.subject		ru_RU
dc.title	Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application.	ru_RU
dc.type	Статьи в зарубежных журналах и сборниках	ru_RU