KFU. Card publication. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application.

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PREDICTIVE ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON WATER YIELD IN THE META RIVER BASIN, COLOMBIA: AN INVEST MODEL APPLICATION.

Form of presentation

Articles in international journals and collections

Year of publication

2024

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Authors, employees of KFU

Guryanov Vladimir Vladimirovich, author

Gusarov Artem Viktorovich, author

Other authors

Valencia Jhon B. , author

Bibliographic description in the original language

Valencia, J.B.; Guryanov, V.V.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Diaz, N.; Escobar-Carbonari, D.; Gusarov, A.V. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application. Hydrology 2024, 11, 25. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025

Annotation

This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin's annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin's water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.

Keywords

water balance; hydrological model; climate change; CMIP6 scenarios; Orinoco River

The name of the journal

Hydrology

URL

https://www.mdpi.com/2306-5338/11/2/25

Please use this ID to quote from or refer to the card

https://repository.kpfu.ru/eng/?p_id=295654&p_lang=2

Full metadata record

Field DC	Value	Language
dc.contributor.author	Guryanov Vladimir Vladimirovich	ru_RU
dc.contributor.author	Gusarov Artem Viktorovich	ru_RU
dc.contributor.author	Valencia Jhon B.	ru_RU
dc.date.accessioned	2024-01-01T00:00:00Z	ru_RU
dc.date.available	2024-01-01T00:00:00Z	ru_RU
dc.date.issued	2024	ru_RU
dc.identifier.citation	Valencia, J.B.; Guryanov, V.V.; Mesa-Diez, J.; Diaz, N.; Escobar-Carbonari, D.; Gusarov, A.V. Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application. Hydrology 2024, 11, 25. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology11020025	ru_RU
dc.identifier.uri	https://repository.kpfu.ru/eng/?p_id=295654&p_lang=2	ru_RU
dc.description.abstract	Hydrology	ru_RU
dc.description.abstract	This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin's annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin's water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.	ru_RU
dc.language.iso	ru	ru_RU
dc.subject		ru_RU
dc.title	Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application.	ru_RU
dc.type	Articles in international journals and collections	ru_RU